Where named AI researchers, philosophers and brain scientists stand on whether LLMs can have experiences, and what expert surveys say about the field as a whole. Three ways to read the same research. Hover or tap any mark for the person's credentials and source.
Rows are each person's stated verdict on today's LLMs. Columns are their substrate view. Most of the field sits in one cell: functionalists who think current LLMs are unlikely to be conscious but future systems could be.
† inferred or extrapolated from a general position. ‡ secondary source only. This is a curated list of people who have spoken publicly, so the counts describe the sample, not the field. For field-wide distributions see Variant B.
The surveys give the distributions. Experts almost unanimously reject consciousness in current AI, yet most think future AI could be conscious. Philosophers lean physicalist about 52 to 32.
PhilPapers 2020 (n=1,092 faculty; 227 philosophers of mind). Francken et al. 2022 (n=166 ASSC consciousness researchers, about one-third grad students); the paper reports only the share answering yes. AIMS 2023 (n=1,169 US adults; "sentient").
PhilPapers 2009 (n=931) and 2020 (n=1,733 mind; n=1,020 consciousness), target faculty, "accept or lean toward". No comparable survey asks neuroscientists or ML researchers about dualism vs physicalism.
Dreksler, Caviola, Chalmers et al. 2025: 582 AI researchers, 838 US public, fielded May 2024. Caviola & Saad 2025: 67 digital-minds and AI experts, fielded Feb–Mar 2025; the sample may over-represent people who expect digital minds. Their 2040 and 2050 points were not re-verified. Same experts: 90% median that digital minds are possible in principle. AI researchers' median for "never": 10%.
Each band is a group of people, followed from their stated metaphysics to their substrate view to their verdict on current LLMs. Band colour is the verdict. The dualist (Chalmers) gives current LLMs a non-negligible chance. Physicalists end up on both sides. The panpsychist-leaning Koch rules digital systems out. Most people have never stated a metaphysics.
Band width = number of people. Hover a band for the names. "Not stated" means no public statement was found on that axis. It does not mean the person has no view.